The US intelligence apparatus reportedly predicted the course of the war in the Middle East even before President Donald Trump greenlit the first missile attack in February.
Days before Trump decided to back the Israeli war goal, his then-intelligence chief, Tulsi Gabbard, briefed him about the US intel correctly predicting that killing Iran’s supreme leader would likely usher in a more hard-line regime open to acquiring nuclear weapons, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.
Nonetheless, Trump went ahead on the warpath that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented to him as a rare opportunity to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program and bolster his legacy as a peacemaker. In Iran, the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has taken control of the nation’s political landscape and commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The new regime under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded the top post from his father, Ali Khamenei, shows no signs of capitulating, and the continued deadlock has led the Trump administration to consider declaring victory with just the opening of the critical shipping route, even without a nuclear deal. Some former White House and national security officials believe that there is no easy way for Trump to get a deal that puts a full stop on Iran’s nuclear work indefinitely, elevating him as a historic wartime president.
“This was all predictable and predicted,” Eric Brewer, a deputy vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative who worked in Democratic and Republican administrations, told the WSJ.
