US-Iran Ceasefire MoU Expires Today. Will War Resume Again?

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Iran and the United States, aimed at ending the fighting in the Middle East, is set to expire on Monday, with little indication from both sides about any possible extension. However, the fate of the talks remains uncertain following the escalation between the two countries in recent weeks. Under the agreement, Tehran and Washington were scheduled to hold negotiations within 60 days to reach a final agreement.

Political Development
Political Development

Barely two weeks after the deal was signed, both sides accused the other of violating the terms of the agreement to justify the weekend exchange of fire over the control of the Strait of Hormuz. In an interview with the state-run IRIB news agency, Araghchi noted that messages are being exchanged between Iran and the United States through mediators, “but this does not mean negotiations at all. In the US, President Donald Trump has meanwhile declared that America would soon claim the critically important waterway for itself.

Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the agreement on June 17 to halt more than three months of war that had killed thousands and crippled commercial shipments through the Gulf, especially oil and gas exports relied on globally.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said that Iran has made no decision yet on the resumption of negotiations with the United States. While Trump claimed Iranian strikes in the region were “a foolish violation” of the deal, Iran said US strikes “violate Article 1 of the Memorandum of Understanding.”

What Happens Next?

Negotiations are underway between Iran and Oman to designate a new route for the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The US president has made it clear that inflicting economic pain on Tehran is part of Washington’s current strategy. Tehran, however, remains steadfast.

“And we are currently designing a temporary route, which will turn into a permanent one in the next stages,” Araghchi said. “We may reach a conclusion soon,” he added. However, he said that the reopening of the strait hinges on the fulfillment of other conditions, “to which the United States must be committed. “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” he said earlier this month. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator and parliament speaker, said the United States and Israel have “failed to achieve” any of the objectives they set at the start of their war.