US forces withdraw from their remaining bases in Iraq on Wednesday, raising fears they will leave behind a security vacuum, further embolden Iranian-backed militias and give the resurgent Islamic State group an opening to regroup.
The departure, celebrated as a victory by Tehran and its allies, was agreed in 2024 under President Joe Biden and carried out by Donald Trump’s administration even as it wages war against Iran, which wields influence in Iraq through proxies.
“The lesson from the past two decades is that security vacuums can be extremely dangerous,” said Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst who advises the security forces.
“What is further concerning is not necessarily direct Iranian intervention, but the possibility that Iran’s proxies will feel increasingly empowered in the absence of a Western military presence. Some Iraqi security officials, both in the federal government and the semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region, say the US pullout also risks giving new life to Islamic State fighters, who, despite the defeat of their self-proclaimed caliphate nearly a decade ago, retain a sleeper cell network. US forces invaded Iraq in 2003 and went on to occupy the country, install a Shi’ite-led government and fight a years-long counterinsurgency — first by Saddam loyalists, then al-Qaeda — before withdrawing at the end of 2011. They returned less than three years later to help Iraqi forces defeat the Sunni militant group Islamic State in a major war from 2014 to 2017.
These groups may attempt to expand their role in shaping state policies and consolidating their presence within key institutions,” said Baghdad-based political analyst Ahmed Younis. “The most important question now is whether Iraq’s security institutions have prepared a viable Plan B for the post-coalition phase,” said retired Iraqi Army General Mohammed al-Jubouri, who led a brigade in the war against Islamic State.
